Alf (@MacroAlf) / X

Alf

12.2K posts

Alf

@MacroAlf

Founder of Palinuro Capital | Founder of The Macro Compass: Institutional Macro Research

Joined December 2020

Alf
@MacroAlf
Sep 3, 2022
This is a massive speech by Putin. ''The economy of imaginary wealth is being inevitably replaced by the economy of real and hard assets''. His strategy is clear. Sticky inflation -> higher (real) rates needed -> pain for hyper-financialized economies.
00:00
Alf
@MacroAlf
Aug 6, 2022
Order is restored. Domino's Pizza just announced it filed for bankruptcy in Italy. You don't f*ck around with Italian pizza.
Alf
@MacroAlf
Sep 28, 2022
Big news: hearing from several sources in the UK that some pension funds are quickly becoming insolvent due to huge margin calls they can’t meet. The massive move in 30y UK swaps and bonds coupled with risk assets tanking behind the problem. That “explains” the BoE action.
Alf
@MacroAlf
Mar 7, 2023
Portfolio manager at one of the largest hedge funds in the world, and he specializes in real estate:
Alf
@MacroAlf
Mar 11, 2023
SVB does not deserve a bailout. A deep look at their financial statement reveals how horrific they were at risk management. And in my opinion incompetence explains only part of it. Moral hazard must have been at play. A thread. 1/
Alf
@MacroAlf
Aug 21, 2022
Monopoly explaining our monetary system pretty well.
Alf
@MacroAlf
Dec 10, 2021
Alf
@MacroAlf
Aug 13, 2022
Google Searches for ''firewood'' in Germany.
Alf
@MacroAlf
Jul 16, 2022
Investing in 2022 is a tough business.
Alf
@MacroAlf
Feb 15, 2022
30y mortgage rates just hit 4%. At this rate, people are going to soon find out their houses are “worth” much less than they think. And this has important second round effects on spending and sentiment. Real estate is the biggest global asset class by market cap. Watch it.
Alf
@MacroAlf
Sep 25, 2022
$30 trillion. That’s roughly the amount of ''financial wealth'' wiped out from the bond, credit, equity and crypto markets since the peak in 2021. It's roughly 30% of global GDP. In case you were wondering :)
Alf
@MacroAlf
Aug 15, 2024
There is a huge macro theme unfolding under our eyes. Yet almost nobody is paying attention. Big things are going on in China. 1/
Alf
@MacroAlf
Mar 11, 2023
Spent hours going through SVB's financial statements and changed my mind on the topic. These guys weren't bad at risk management. They were outright horrific. They literally gambled billions away. You should not reward this level of moral hazard with a bailout.
Alf
@MacroAlf
Jan 28, 2023
In 4-5 months, I expect the US to be in a recession. A thread. 1/