Oxford Economics (@OxfordEconomics) / X

Oxford Economics

13.8K posts

Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

World leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis for business and government

Global

Joined August 2010

Oxford Economics
@OxfordEconomics
Oct 13, 2022
We estimate the recent surge in swap rates means that UK house prices are 37% overvalued based on mortgage affordability. Though other metrics suggest prices are less stretched, we forecast prices will drop by 10%-15% over the next two years: bit.ly/3rPHg9E
Oxford Economics
@OxfordEconomics
May 20, 2020
The poor economic backdrop means our state-based & national election models both suggest President Trump will lose the popular vote. But while economic factors point to a clear Democrat win, voter turnout and the evolution of the pandemic could be crucial bit.ly/2LK6rpg
Oxford Economics
@OxfordEconomics
Aug 12, 2020
Spain's 23% fall in GDP in H1 2020 is the largest of all major economies that have reported so far. In our latest research briefing, we set out a series of health and economic factors which combine to explain why Spain fared so badly: bit.ly/3fMAmJX
Oxford Economics
@OxfordEconomics
Nov 30, 2016
Spain has overtaken Italy on almost every economic metric and we expect the gap to widen over the next decade: hubs.ly/H05nmkp0
Oxford Economics
@OxfordEconomics
Nov 21, 2023
We estimate that UK house prices are still more than 20% overvalued based on the affordability of mortgage payments. This is likely to mean transactions and lending remain very low, and that the house price correction has further to run: okt.to/B8tlqs
Oxford Economics
@OxfordEconomics
Sep 19, 2018
The average European #migrant to the #UK arriving in 2016 will contribute £78,000 more to the UK #publicfinances than they take out in public services/benefits over their entire time in UK, our report finds: bit.ly/2QGXeiJ
Oxford Economics
@OxfordEconomics
Feb 2, 2016
Overall debt in #China now exceeds 300% of GDP
Oxford Economics
@OxfordEconomics
Jan 19, 2023
House prices have fallen rapidly in several economies over recent months and more pain looks likely in 2023. The speed of these declines is comparable to the worst period of the GFC. Are we heading for a similar nasty global housing bust? bit.ly/3CXk5R4
Oxford Economics
@OxfordEconomics
Nov 24, 2021
Whether eurozone inflation is temporary is hotly debated, but it doesn't matter for interest rates over the longer term. We expect rising longevity and low fertility rates to result in an oversupply of savings that will keep interest rates & inflation low: bit.ly/3cDNdPy
Oxford Economics
@OxfordEconomics
Jul 3, 2023
Today’s Global #Manufacturing #PMI resumed its decline and it remains firmly below the threshold for expansion, posting 48.8 in June. Our view is that low global demand for goods and low investment will hamper industrial activity across the world this year bit.ly/439BS1x
Oxford Economics
@OxfordEconomics
Mar 31, 2020
The #pandemic will badly hit #emergingmarket economies. Limitations in health care, fiscal buffers, economic structure make #EMs vulnerable. Our scorecard ranks EMs exposure: LatAm and Africa worst affected: bit.ly/2xFvhmA Coronavirus latest: bit.ly/2Uw6aeL
Oxford Economics
@OxfordEconomics
Sep 18, 2018
US-China #tradewar will cast shadow on global growth. - 10% #tariffs on $200bn + existing 25% on $50bn = drag of 0.4ppt in 2019 #GDP - 25% #tariffs by Jan 1 would have more significant effect - escalation to all imports would cut growth by 1ppt.
Oxford Economics
@OxfordEconomics
Apr 25, 2024
We modeled two scenarios in which former President Donald #Trump returns to the White House and Republicans gain full control of Congress after the 2024 election. Download our full report here: okt.to/qBmdtk
GIF
Oxford Economics
@OxfordEconomics
Feb 10, 2022
A recent book by Goodhart and Pradhan claims that demographic changes will soon cause a substantial, structural rise in inflation and interest rates. But our analysis suggests the opposite, as our latest note explains: bit.ly/34zjbMl