$VIX has closed over 30 nine days in a row. When VIX closes over 30 at least 5 days in a row, then closes under 30, forward $SPX returns are very positive: 10x normal in a week, 6x in a month, 4x in a quarter and more than 2x normal over the next year.
$VIX front month futures seem to have topped at 21.00 and are now falling even with further downside movement in stocks. This is often the signal of a forthcoming bottom. $VX_F
Even in 2020 (or 2018 or 2011) $VXX never moved 15% in three consecutive sessions. Past three days: +27.30%, -15.71% and +15.46%. Another new VXX record today. $VIX$UVXY
While the $VIX is under 18, it is worth noting that all the VIX futures from 3 mos to 9 mos are over 21, so investors believe the current lull in volatility is temporary and not at all what we should expect for the balance of the year.
$VIX hits highest level since February meme stock madness, topping out at 32.61 intraday before closing at 31.12. Recall that a VIX of 32 translates into an expectation of roughly a 2% move in $SPX each day
$VIX poised to be down 6 days in a row. The index has fallen 7 days in a row 30 times in the past 34 years. When this happens, the $SPX tends to slightly underperform for the next week, but dramatically outperform from the second week out through one year.
$VIX on track for 6th down day in a row. This happens about 2x/yr with 7 consecutive down days about 1x/yr. Seasonal factors (notably fewer trading days) increase the odds of this happening in December
A higher $VIX always has a burden of proof issue. At 24 the stock market has to be reasonably persuasive that the $SPX is going to be moving about 1.5% per day. Any wavering, doubt or quiet(er) periods and the VIX begins to fall back to earth. $VXX
$VIX up 7 days in a row today for the first time since the 2016 pre-election uncertainty. The last time before that you have to back to 2013 and…Fed tapering fears
Consecutive 45+ $VIX closes are extremely rare. So rare that only two previous crises have included at least two 45+ closes in a row: the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09 and the Pandemic of 2020.
Today ended a 13 consecutive day streak of sub-13 $VIX closes. The last time there were 13 sub-13 VIX closes in a row was 1/26/18. Volmageddon followed 1 1/2 weeks later. Past performance is not indicative of future results... 😎
$VIX has been down 8 days in a row. If it closes lower today (probably not, at this juncture), it will be only the 10th time in 35 years. The record is 10 down days in a row, which has only happened three times in the history of the VIX. For now, the VIX floor is about 13.
