Some personal news: Had the best long weekend, said yes, and now have ~a year to convince this guy to let me use “rational exuberance” as a wedding hashtag.
So first, they did not talk about talking about taper.
Then they talked about talking about taper.
Then they talked about taper.
Now they're teeing up taper.
Next they'll announce taper.
Then they'll taper.
I don't have kids, but I'm wondering if this is ~how bedtime works
This is quite the stat, from Brainard: "Federal Reserve staff analysis indicates that unemployment is likely above 20 percent for workers in the bottom wage quartile, while it has fallen below 5 percent for the top wage quartile."
Goldman Sachs estimates that of the 5 m people missing from the job mkt:
- 1.5m retired early
- 1 m retired normally
- 0.9 m 55+, not retired
- 1.7 m prime-age
....aka solidly 50% probably won't come back. Which'd really dent "temporary" labor shortage storylines.
Personal news: I'm moving to Brussels in January to be the NYT's new bureau chief.
I'll miss the Fed beat, but I'm grateful for the opportunity and excited for the new adventure. Hit me up with your EU tips and food recs!
And if you're interested... wd5.myworkday.com/nytimes/d/inst…
This is interesting: "Beijing has tested expiration dates to encourage users to spend it quickly, for times when the economy needs a jump start." via @jamestareddy
"A New York Times analysis of data compiled by Capital IQ shows no statistically meaningful relationship between the size of the tax cut that companies and industries received and the investments they made."
Uh: "Instead of simply paying for property with tokens, borrowers pledge their digital holdings as collateral, with no down payments necessary. That enables the holders to keep their coins, avoiding taxes on capital gains..."