Mary Radcliffe (@marywitha4) / X

Mary Radcliffe

2,479 posts

Mary Radcliffe

@marywitha4

@50Plus1News and @StateNavigate. Formerly @FiveThirtyEight

Pittsburgh, PA

Joined March 2016

Mary Radcliffe
@marywitha4
Mar 7, 2025
I have a present for you all! One of the most useful tools we had for reporting at 538 was a dataset we maintained of every poll our research team came across, even if it didn't have horserace questions, starting after the 2020 election.
Mary Radcliffe
@marywitha4
Mar 5, 2025
For now, I've built a janky ass spreadsheet with the public data from the 538 polls page. I will do my best to keep it updated. More TK.
docs.google.com
Polls
Mary Radcliffe
@marywitha4
Mar 7, 2025
Replying to @marywitha4
Well, now there's nobody to use that data, which is really sad. So I gift it unto you all, for your future reporting needs.
docs.google.com
All Polls
Mary Radcliffe
@marywitha4
Aug 25, 2025
Ok, I have a huge issue with this NYT reapportionment piece. Let's just take a look here. (1/)
Mary Radcliffe
@marywitha4
Apr 21, 2025
The last few months I've been seeing quite a big change in the generic ballot polls, so out of curiosity I went back to the last couple of cycles to see what kind of story the generic ballot might be telling in the early days of each presidency.
Mary Radcliffe
@marywitha4
Oct 17, 2025
These are all the Trump approval polls released this morning (so far). Something very weird is happening.
Mary Radcliffe
@marywitha4
Oct 8, 2025
Has something felt… missing in your life for the past 6 months? Tomorrow….
Mary Radcliffe
@marywitha4
Dec 26, 2017
Lol Jesus didn’t say that.... that’s an English proverb from the mid 1800s. Maybe read a history book sometime?
Mary Radcliffe
@marywitha4
Nov 5, 2025
Replying to @marywitha4
Trump's support among nonwhite voters is dropping much more rapidly among white voters. Like, astonishingly more.
Mary Radcliffe
@marywitha4
Aug 25, 2025
Replying to @marywitha4
I'm not really upset that they wrote this article. It's a fine sort of model to consider. But the confidence with which they predict what is a clearly uncertain future is pretty gross to me. We would NEVER have used language like that at 538. (8/)
Mary Radcliffe
@marywitha4
Apr 21, 2025
Replying to @marywitha4
Beyond just Trump's job approval, I think this sort of thing should be a flashing warning sign to congressional Republicans. Although they're in a tough spot: go against Trump and maybe he takes you out, stay with him and maybe the voters do. Tricky.
Mary Radcliffe
@marywitha4
Mar 7, 2025
Replying to @marywitha4
We diligently logged each poll in every state, congressional district, major city or county, and nationally. We also included topic tags so that it would be easy to find whatever sort of data you'd be interested in.
Mary Radcliffe
@marywitha4
Nov 5, 2025
Replying to @marywitha4
And among younger voters, the decline over time is also fairly stark.
Mary Radcliffe
@marywitha4
Apr 21, 2025
Replying to @marywitha4
But most striking to me here is the movement. In both 2017 and 2021, not much change in generic ballot over the first 100 days. This time though? A shift of over 6 points away from the party in power in the first few months.