Neil Thomas 牛犇 (@neilthomas123) / X

Neil Thomas 牛犇

3,991 posts

Neil Thomas 牛犇

@neilthomas123

Senior Fellow on Chinese Politics @AsiaSociety. Ex @EurasiaGroup @Harvard. Words @ForeignAffairs @ForeignPolicy @NYTimes @WashingtonPost etc. Views my own.

Washington DC

asiasociety.org/policy-institu…

Joined March 2011

Pinned
Neil Thomas 牛犇
@neilthomas123
Jun 7, 2023
Who runs 🇨🇳? Not just Xi Jinping! The 🇺🇸 CIA used to store profiles of 🇨🇳 leaders & their networks on index cards that filled a room the size of a football pitch Now this info is at your fingertips, thanks to Decoding Chinese Politics by @AsiaPolicy This is how it works ⬇️🧵
Neil Thomas 牛犇
@neilthomas123
Oct 22, 2022
Huge reveals in new 20th CCP Central Committee Xi Jinping stays! But retirement for standing committee members 68+ Li Keqiang gone! So much for him as a political force Wang Yang gone! Next premier probs Hu Chunhua or Li Qiang (both stay) More Xi. More Xi policies. (1/)
Neil Thomas 牛犇
@neilthomas123
Oct 23, 2022
Who are China's new leaders? The CCP just announced its new Politburo Standing Committee The result: a clean sweep for Xi allies and a consolidation of power unseen since the Mao era 1. Xi Jinping 2. Li Qiang 3. Zhao Leji 4. Wang Huning 5. Cai Qi 6. Ding Xuexiang 7. Li Xi (1/)
Neil Thomas 牛犇
@neilthomas123
Sep 6, 2023
This story says Xi skipped G20 after Party elders reprimanded him for his policy choices Possibly. But reasons for caution: -Very hard for retired officials to coordinate -Source has a mixed track record -G20 absence could be for other reasons asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks… 1/15
Analysis: Xi reprimanded by elders at Beidaihe over direction of nation
From asia.nikkei.com
Neil Thomas 牛犇
@neilthomas123
Jul 24, 2023
Tomorrow we learn something about Qin Gang, China's missing foreign minister The National People's Congress Standing Committee will meet on 25 July This body formally removes and appoints State Council members like ministers when full NPC not in session What could happen..1/5
Neil Thomas 牛犇
@neilthomas123
Sep 19, 2024
Who are the rising stars of Chinese politics? Many are leaders of mainland China's 31 provincial-level local governments We mapped provincial leaders and their connections in a new section of our interactive @AsiaPolicy product Decoding Chinese Politics Who's on the up? 1/18
Neil Thomas 牛犇
@neilthomas123
Jul 20, 2023
Xi met Kissinger today Xi said bilateral ties need "the three principles" of "mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation" This is Xi's model for US-China relations since 11/2021. But what do the three principles mean? Xi used them with one other country...1/6
Neil Thomas 牛犇
@neilthomas123
Oct 10, 2024
Who are the most important people in China you've never heard of? Probably the cadres who help Xi Jinping to manage the day-to-day business of CCP politics and policy We map the Party Center in a new part of our interactive @AsiaPolicy product Decoding Chinese Politics 1/22
Neil Thomas 牛犇
@neilthomas123
Aug 27, 2025
"During Xi’s third term, 14 of the 79 generals promoted under him have either gone missing or been probed, according to a Bloomberg analysis." "By comparison, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao didn’t investigate a single general promoted during their rule." 1/
Neil Thomas 牛犇
@neilthomas123
Jul 1, 2023
Shock promotion in Beijing Pan Gongsheng appointed party boss of the People's Bank of China after being dropped from the CCP Central Committee last October My initial reaction is this suggests Xi is more concerned about China's economy than before the 20th Party Congress 🧵⬇️
Neil Thomas 牛犇
@neilthomas123
Dec 7, 2023
This @POLITICOEurope piece on Chinese politics drew attention for some big claims Like how the CCP purged "loyalists from the inner ring of Xi’s own clique" Wrong. Qin Gang & Li Shangfu were not in the inner ring. Many questionable lines here... 1/16
China’s Xi goes full Stalin with purge
From politico.eu
Neil Thomas 牛犇
@neilthomas123
Jul 31, 2025
Xi Jinping is often called the "Chairman of Everything." But of course Xi can't actually do everything. So what does he focus on? New @AsiaSociety research by Lobsang Tsering & I analyzes which policies Xi handles "personally"—and which he avoids. Some intriguing results🧵
Neil Thomas 牛犇
@neilthomas123
Oct 17, 2025
Big update! China just confirmed it has fired number-two general He Weidong 9 generals, inc 8 Central Committee members, expelled from the CCP 1 Politburo vacancy, 3 Central Military Commission vacancies, 11 CC vacancies Will Xi fill them at the Fourth Plenum next week? 1/
Neil Thomas 牛犇
@neilthomas123
Oct 15, 2025
Who has Xi purged from the CCP Central Committee? Attendance at next week's Fourth Plenum will reveal the extent of his recent "purge surge" If all rumors are true, only 168/205 members (82%) and 159/171 alternates (93%) will be there And only 17/44 of PLA members (39%)! 1/
Neil Thomas 牛犇
@neilthomas123
Aug 12, 2024
Told @SCMPNews that Wang Huning "is a political survivor who loyally served Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao but found his greatest supporter in Xi Jinping. Wang’s neo-authoritarian intellectual project is a perfect complement to Xi’s centralizing political project." 1/4