#BTC
History suggests that Bitcoin tends to breakout 150-160 days after the Halving
That would mean Bitcoin would breakout from its ReAccumulation Range in late September 2024
That being said, Average Historical Monthly Returns for September are -4.48%, with highest ever
#BTC
Bitcoin needs to Weekly Close above $58450 to confirm the Channel bottom (black) as support
Such a Weekly Close would also secure the multi-week blue Higher Low as this HL is approximately confluent with the Channel bottom
Crucial retest is in progress
$BTC#Bitcoin
#BTC
Bitcoin had a positive Weekly Close to kickstart the reclaim process of the Weekly Channel (black)
Lately, BTC retraced to retest the Channel Bottom as support
Successful retest here will confirm that BTC has fully returned to the Weekly Channel
$BTC#Crypto#Bitcoin
#BTC
Bitcoin bottomed 547 days prior to the 2016 Halving but topped in its Bull Market 518 days after the 2016 Halving
Bitcoin bottomed 517 days prior to the 2020 Halving but topped in its Bull Market 549 days after the 2020 Halving
Bitcoin bottomed 517 days before the 2024
#BTC
Imagine if this is a post-breakout retest of the Downtrending Channel
Successful retest of the top of the Channel would fully confirm the breakout and precede upside continuation
$BTC#Crypto#Bitcoin
#BTC
Bitcoin is in a Halving year
So it makes most sense to compare 2024 with previous Halving years
In the previous Halving years (2016 & 2020), Bitcoin enjoyed three straight months of upside across October, November and December
$BTC#Crypto#Bitcoin
#BTC
In the 2015-2017 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 518 days after the Halving
In the 2019-2021 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 546 days after the Halving
If history repeats and the next Bull Market peak occurs 518-546 days after the Halving...
That would mean Bitcoin could peak in this cycle
#BTC
Bitcoin is down -6.19% for the month of September
This approximately matches the September single-digit downside experienced in 2022, 2021, 2020, 2018 and 2017
This downside is not out of the ordinary
$BTC#Crypto#Bitcoin
#BTC is down -40% since the Death Cross occurred in early Jan '22
History suggests that whenever a Death Cross occurs, #Bitcoin experiences deeper downside
Now that one has occurred, what could we potentially expect?
Here's a thread with my analysis about the $BTC Death Cross:
#BTC
So far, so good
The retest continues to be successful as the week goes on
Bitcoin has also been forming Higher Lows since early July
$BTC#Crypto#Bitcoin
#BTC
Bitcoin had a positive Weekly Close to kickstart the reclaim process of the Weekly Channel (black)
Lately, BTC retraced to retest the Channel Bottom as support
Successful retest here will confirm that BTC has fully returned to the Weekly Channel
$BTC#Crypto#Bitcoin
#BTC
5 Phases of The Bitcoin Halving
1. Pre-Halving period
Approximately 5.5 months remain until the Bitcoin Halving in April 2024
Historically, any deeper retraces that occur during this period tend to generate fantastic Return On Investment for investors in the several