For the first time since 2006, purchasing an entry-level home costs more than twice as much per month as renting. 🫥
John Burns Research and Consulting
3,835 posts
John Burns Research and Consulting
@JBREC
Our team produces independent research and custom consulting advice to help executives make the most informed decisions possible.
- BREAKING: Home prices have fallen in 53 of 150 markets we cover.😬 Any surprises here?
- 12,000+ people are turning 35 years old every day in the US. Remember talking about 10,000 people turning 65 every day? This is even bigger. With the median age of first-time buyers at 35 years old, expect solid housing demand in the near-term.
- Homes listed for sale due to old-age deaths to hit almost 800K by 2033. Big number, but it’s less than 1% of today’s 83M owner-occupied homes. Aging Baby Boomers will not crash the housing market.
- (1/9) 🤯Home prices are falling in 35% of the country [A thread]
- Small landlords own nearly 9 in 10 single-family rental homes in America. Our research found that small investors accounted for 28% of all homes sold during 1Q2022, compared to 6% for large investors owning 10+ homes. By @VinjeruM and @TheEconomist:
- Unprecedented wealth creation is driving the housing market. People born before 1970 now control $107 trillion in wealth, and they can’t take it with them. So they are buying homes, helping their adult kids buy/rent homes, and remodeling.
- A little over a year ago, the monthly cost of owning (as we calculate it*) and renting were virtually identical. Now, owning a home costs $839 more per month than renting. This differential is almost $200 higher than at any time since the turn of the century.
- Shifts in US population over the next 10 years mean a larger prime-working-age population (ages 25-54)—aided by immigration—and a booming 70+ population. Expect losses in active-adult / late career groups (ages 55-69), teens and early 20s.
- "Soft landing is a PR phrase,” said Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer (@GrantsPub). “It’s sweet, benign, and unlikely.” Jim and @RickPalaciosJr kicked off the morning with historical cycles to help strategize for tomorrow. #jbrec
- Baby Boomers are set for longer, richer retirements than their parents. The avg. Boomer is now 67 and will live another 21 years. Expect 2 more decades of the avg. Boomer spending on their home and helping their adult children buy or rent.
- Many people signed contracts for new homes with near-record-low mortgage rates in mind. Now, rates are surging “The chances of [the buyer] no longer being able to qualify for this home go up significantly" said @RickPalaciosJr By @NicoleFriedman + @WSJ:
- The housing bubble is set to pop. Assessing the criteria that we set almost a decade ago, we have found that 16 of the 20 housing bubble signs are now flashing red. In last month’s client-exclusive housing outlook webinar, CEO @johnburnsjbrec called out some signs we are seeing
00:00
