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Rick Palacios Jr.
@RickPalaciosJr
Director of Research | John Burns Research & Consulting @JBREC | Previously @MorganStanley & @MilkenInstitute | All things housing
jbrec.com
Joined October 2012
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  • user avatar
    Rick Palacios Jr.
    @RickPalaciosJr
    Jul 11, 2022
    June home builder sentiment and survey results are in. Top themes: 1) A lot more new home buyers cancelling. 2) Price cuts becoming fairly common. 3) Drop in demand finally cooling construction cost pressures (builder layoffs also happening). Market commentary to follow…
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    Rick Palacios Jr.
    @RickPalaciosJr
    May 9, 2022
    April homebuilder survey results are here. Top themes: 1) Demand is slowing, namely entry-level due to payment shock. 2) Investors are pulling back. 3) Ripple effect of rising rates starting to hit move-up market. Market commentary to follow…
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    Rick Palacios Jr.
    @RickPalaciosJr
    Oct 31, 2022
    CEO of Camden Property Trust (big apartment REIT) sharing candid thoughts on new home market during earnings call last Friday: “I serve on the Board of the largest privately held homebuilder in America. Our sales are down -50% from June forward, and they’re not going up.”
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    Rick Palacios Jr.
    @RickPalaciosJr
    Apr 4, 2022
    Biggest spread since 2007 on cost of owning home vs. renting home nationally.
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    Rick Palacios Jr.
    @RickPalaciosJr
    Dec 31, 2022
    Cost of owning vs. renting a home became focal point in our housing coverage throughout 2022. Home prices historically need a reset when the premium of owning explodes this high, this quickly.
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    389K
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    Rick Palacios Jr.
    @RickPalaciosJr
    May 17, 2022
    Price cuts
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    Rick Palacios Jr.
    @RickPalaciosJr
    Jun 8, 2022
    May homebuilder survey results published last week. Top themes: 1) Builder metrics quickly deteriorating across the board. 2) Price cuts on standing ‘speculative’ inventory accelerating. 3) Buyer incentives are back. Market commentary to follow…
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    Rick Palacios Jr.
    @RickPalaciosJr
    Jul 30, 2023
    What's holding up residential land development? If you're on the West Coast, primary culprit is jurisdiction requirements & lengthy delays (see dark blue bars). That issue rarely pops up in Texas & didn't even register in Florida based on our land broker survey this quarter.
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    355K
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    Rick Palacios Jr.
    @RickPalaciosJr
    Dec 9, 2022
    Interesting that FHA mortgage delinquency rates are rising this quickly without widespread job losses.
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    Rick Palacios Jr.
    @RickPalaciosJr
    Jul 5, 2021
    Analyzing June new home sales & pricing figures from our monthly builder survey. As one builder noted: “It’s not fun to be a builder anymore.” Lumber relief is nice but pick your poison on other issues. Market commentary from across the country to follow...
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    Rick Palacios Jr.
    @RickPalaciosJr
    Feb 17, 2023
    Number of Realtors falling for first time in over decade.
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    180K
  • user avatar
    Rick Palacios Jr.
    @RickPalaciosJr
    Jun 3, 2023
    Home builders had yet another strong month of sales in May. Monthly pace of sales 30% above May sales in 2013 to 2019 (more normal years). In addition, May 2023 sales rate exceeded May 2020, May 2022, and was in line with May 2021, all of which were phenomenal sales periods.
    275K
  • user avatar
    Rick Palacios Jr.
    @RickPalaciosJr
    Nov 9, 2022
    Home builder commentary from our survey this month was about as negative as I've seen to date. Here's some of the market color that jumped out...
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    Rick Palacios Jr.
    @RickPalaciosJr
    Aug 20, 2021
    Just surveyed 6,000+ real estate agents across country. Top themes from our 1st ever RESALE agent survey: 1) Buyer fatigue, w/rumblings of remorse. 2) Bidding wars a bit less bonkers. 3) Cash is King & ton of investors. 4) Inventory gridlock. Commentary across country to follow…