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Eric Neyman
2,896 posts
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Eric Neyman
@ericneyman
Professional reference class tennis player. I like non-fillet frozen fish, packaged medicaments, and other oily seeds.
ericneyman.wordpress.com
Joined June 2013
132
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1,800
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  • user avatar
    Eric Neyman
    @ericneyman
    Jun 21, 2024
    Every time a new LLM comes out, I ask it one question: What is the smallest integer whose square is between 15 and 30? So far, no LLM has gotten this right.
    1.9M
  • user avatar
    Eric Neyman
    @ericneyman
    Jun 21, 2024
    Replying to @gcolbourn
    I did. 4 is not the right answer.
    156K
  • user avatar
    Eric Neyman
    @ericneyman
    Jun 21, 2024
    Replying to @gcolbourn
    In my parlance, -4 is unambiguously smaller than 4 (and -10 is smaller still). I *think* this is the usual interpretation?
    113K
  • user avatar
    Eric Neyman
    @ericneyman
    Jun 22, 2024
    Replying to @ericneyman
    The answer (plug into rot13.com): Gur nafjre vf artngvir svir. Vs lbh guvax artngvir svir vfa'g "fznyyre" guna sbhe, abgr gung YYZf qba'g trg gubfr rira vs lbh ercynpr "fznyyrfg" jvgu "yrnfg".
    136K
  • user avatar
    Eric Neyman
    @ericneyman
    Jun 28, 2024
    Why is P(Newsom | not Biden) like 50%? That seems way way way too high to me?
    user avatar
    Adam Ozimek
    @ModeledBehavior
    Jun 28, 2024
    Biden down to 59% odds of being the dem nominee now
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    32K
  • user avatar
    Eric Neyman
    @ericneyman
    Jun 21, 2024
    Replying to @ValsTutor
    Yeah, I'm definitely not claiming that my question is evidence of LLMs being worse than humans. Humans also get this question wrong, as you point out!
    81K
  • user avatar
    Eric Neyman
    @ericneyman
    Aug 1, 2025
    I was at the SF Exploratorium yesterday, which featured an Anthropic-sponsored AI exhibition. It had an exhibit that downplays AI x-risk by comparing x-risk fears to fears about earlier technologies. @AnthropicAI are you guys aware that this exhibit is being run in your name??
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    34K
  • user avatar
    Eric Neyman
    @ericneyman
    Jun 13, 2025
    Oh man, so many Bayes points for the Pentagon pizza theory! x.com/PenPizzaReport…
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    user avatar
    Pentagon Pizza Report
    @PenPizzaReport
    Jun 12, 2025
    As of 6:59pm ET nearly all pizza establishments nearby the Pentagon have experienced a HUGE surge in activity.
    20K
  • user avatar
    Eric Neyman
    @ericneyman
    Nov 5, 2024
    Guys, I don't often ask you to retweet, but please retweet this. Swap Your Vote *does not have enough safe state voters to match all its swing state voters!* Swap Your Vote (link below) matches swing state voters who prefer Harris to Trump but don't want to vote for Harris...
    154K
  • user avatar
    Eric Neyman
    @ericneyman
    Aug 28, 2024
    This wording from the Chamber of Commerce poll on SB 1047 (the California AI bill) is INSANE. I follow polling regularly and have almost *never* seen such biased language. Even the most egregious push polls usually make some token pretense of neutrality.
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    46K
  • user avatar
    Eric Neyman
    @ericneyman
    Dec 7, 2024
    Here's a great example of prediction markets being useful. I couldn't really tell from news reports how likely Assad was to lose power. So I went on Polymarket. Turns out: very likely. I wouldn't have guessed!
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    8.1K
  • user avatar
    Eric Neyman
    @ericneyman
    Jun 22, 2024
    Replying to @arivero and @gcolbourn
    To be clear, I never claimed that -4 was the right answer :)
    22K
  • user avatar
    Eric Neyman
    @ericneyman
    Sep 6, 2020
    Just wrote a new blog post, about a sport called marble racing! In particular, I found that Jelle's Marble Runs (@Jellesmarbles) isn't entirely random -- marbles have a level of "skill"!
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    Jelle’s marbles have skill
    From ericneyman.blog
  • user avatar
    Eric Neyman
    @ericneyman
    Jun 5, 2025
    Featured in the latest Money Stuff column by Matt Levine, which I think is pretty cool!!
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    4.8K

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