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Launch day! My new book on China's military strategy, Active Defense, is now available: buff.ly/2DucRoV Read more about the book here: buff.ly/2KAgeNb
M. Taylor Fravel
27.8K posts
M. Taylor Fravel
@fravel
Studying China's foreign and security policies @MIT and Director @MIT_SSP. Author of Active Defense: China's Military Strategy Since 1949 bit.ly/2E3WDE3
Joined February 2008
- Comparing China’s 1995/1996 live fire exercises during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis (left) and with those just announced for August 2022 (right). Sources: asiapacific.anu.edu.au/mapsonline/bas… and xhpfmapi.xinhuaxmt.com/vh512/share/10…
- US-China relations are entering perilous period. A short thread. 1/
- I can think of no armed conflict involving China where it has released casualty figures publicly at the time of the conflict. Usually, they are published years or decades later. Casualties from 1962 war only published in 1994 internal history.Replying to @rahulkanwalIndian intel agencies looking carefully at audio intercepts, visuals, survivor reports to assess casualties on Chinese side. Preliminary reports indicate heavy fatalities acc to Indian Govt briefing. India doesn’t except China to own up to because of track record of hiding deaths
- China today has active territorial disputes with seven countries over six areas: —Tawain —India border —Bhutan border —Paracel Islands (Vietnam, Taiwan) —Spratly Islands (Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan) —Senkaku Islands (Japan)China has disputes with over dozen countries
- Deadliest clash on the China-India border since 1967, or in over 50 years. This will likely be a watershed moment in India-China relations.Indian Army confirms 20 deaths. Toll could go up further.
- US favorable views of China the lowest since Gallup started polling on this question in 1979—and ten points lower than after Tiananmen in 1989 buff.ly/380oCCq
- China has conducted ballistic missile tests with 16 missiles. They landed in three closure areas to Taiwan's northeast, east, and southeast. A short thread. 1/
- If China agrees to this reported request from Russia and supplies arms to Moscow, Ukraine would become the first proxy war in the US-China rivalry on.ft.com/3MM3DpX
- A short thread on China’s claims and maps in the Galwan Valley.
- The PRC has approx 200 warheads atop missiles that can range CONUS. The United States has about 3,570 that can strike China.As Communist China moves to at least double the size of its nuclear stockpile, modernizing our nuclear force and maintaining readiness is essential to a free and open Indo-Pacific.
- Xi Jinping has not left China since the start of the pandemic. Yet, due to the Olympics, Xi has met with ~19 foreigner leaders so far. China has also signed joint statements with 7 countries—Russia, Ecuador, Papua New Guinea, Argentina, Pakistan, Mongolia and Kyrgyzstan.
- Big news for PLA watchers—the Central Military Commission is starting to issue new operational doctrine. A short thread. 1/
