Ellis Bates

@ElliscbIV

Election Analysis Fellow @VoteHub. Forecasts & occasional writing on Substack. MI roots, CA native. Marist '30 🦊

San Diego, CA

ellisbates.substack.com

Replies Reposts Media

Ellis Bates
@ElliscbIV
Aug 29
Michigan’s gold-standard poll finds El-Sayed matching Benson’s 4-point lead, a sharp turnaround from Rogers’ 3-point edge in the last poll. El-Sayed also holds a 12-point net favorability edge over Rogers, double Benson’s 6-point advantage over James.
Politics Watch
@politics_watch1
Aug 29
Michigan Senate (EPIC-MRA) 🔵El-Sayed 47% 🔴Rogers 43% 08/22 – 08/28
Ellis Bates
@ElliscbIV
Aug 28
A fake David Jolly tried to follow me on Instagram…
Ellis Bates
@ElliscbIV
Aug 27
It seems most voters want a steady hand to govern their state and a partisan fighter to represent them in Congress. Makes sense given the intense polarization of federal elections.
Hunter📈🌈📊
@StatisticUrban
Aug 27
Voters often seem more hesitant to go with ideological hard-liners in governor's races. In Oklahoma (!), the hard-right Republican barely survived the primary. Hong lost. Kari Lake lost in 2022. In Trump +46 Wyoming, the moderate Republican easily cruised to a 16pt win. IDK.
Ellis Bates
@ElliscbIV
Aug 27
Talarico leads by 6 at 48%, while Abbott holds a 7-point edge, a 13-point delta between the two races and a bearish sign for Paxton. Republicans also find themselves in margin of error races in every other statewide contest except Lt. Gov.
InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
Aug 27
TEXAS POLL By TPOR Senate 🟦 Talarico: 48% 🟥 Paxton: 42% —— GOV 🟥 Abbott (inc): 49% 🟦 Hinojosa: 42% —— LT GOV 🟥 Patrick: 47% 🟦 Goodwin: 41% —— AG 🟥 Middleton: 44% 🟦 Johnson: 41% —— Comptroller 🟥 Huffines: 43% 🟦 Ekhardt: 41% —— Agriculture Commissioner 🟥 Sheets: 44%
Ellis Bates
@ElliscbIV
Aug 27
One key point on Hispanic reversion for Democrats: it doesn’t all have to come from persuasion. Democratic-leaning Latinos could simply turn out at higher rates, while frustrated GOP-leaning Latinos may either sit out or vote blue.
Mike Madrid
@madrid_mike
Aug 26
Saw this first hand in South Texas this past week. Texas cattle ranchers are PISSED. Constantly being covered on local news and base Trump voters are in open revolt.