About us
We develop and apply forecasting methods to improve decision-making on high-stakes issues
First generation forecasting research—spearheaded by FRI Chief Scientist Philip Tetlock and coauthors—established a rigorous standard for prediction accuracy. FRI builds on this foundation by running large-scale forecasting studies on issues such as AI, biosecurity, and geopolitics. We then bring these results to policymakers, researchers, and the public to inform decisions on consequential topics.
