"Right to Work" Will Cause Both R and D Incumbents to Lose in November

I don't know what the motivation of the State Representatives is when it comes to right to work.  It could be a grudge match that they are finally willing to throw down on.  It could be that both sides just truly believe that right to work is such an important issue that it's worth stopping all other business for.  I only know one thing for sure...they sure aren't battling it out because the people of the state give a crap...because we don't.

Don't get me wrong.  There are some extremely vocal supporters on both sides of the issue. And I'm not saying I don't have my own opinion on right to work, because I do. But an independent survey on the issue by Ball State's Bowen Center said that, for the most part, we Hoosiers simply do not care about right to work.

The survey shows that approximately the same number of Hoosiers are for right to work as are against it.  Both those numbers come in right around 25% (27% for, 24% against, within the surveys margin of error.)  The remaining half of us?  Well they either don't know or don't care about the issue.

What's that mean for those representing us at the Statehouse?  I suggest it means they better get their acts together and either and pass or shoot down the bill - and quickly.  With this many Hoosiers apathetic to the issue, anything that happens on behalf of this bill that slows down or halts other legislation will simply be considered intolerable.

It's only been three days right now, but there is currently no end in sight for the Democratic walkout.  Democratic Minority Leader Pat Bauer has made several statements indicating that there is no current plan for the Dems to leave the state, or that the walkout will last as long as the one last year. Simultaneously, signs of hope for their return are currently few to none.  They are demanding the GOP agree to several statewide hearings on the issue, but there has been no indication from Speaker Bosma that he is willing to put the vote on the back burner while such hearings take place.

The Democrats have since announced that they will have their own hearings on the issue.  There has not been any statement as to whether they will return after they are completed.  One would assume that they would, but depending on the time frame of those hearings, it may be too late for their careers.

Simply, if the Representatives on both sides continue this childish fight for very long at all, the large number of Hoosiers that don't care about the issue will vote accordingly.  Not against Republicans.  Not against Democrats.  They will vote against incumbents.  If the Representatives cannot, for the second year in a row, reach enough compromise to even get business started, then this election year will be one full of kicking people to the curbs.

I'd like to add that there's something almost good about this...almost.  Politicians being so committed to an ideal they believe is truly for better of all, and willing to risk their jobs in support of that ideal (on both sides), is a rare thing.  I don't believe for a second though that either side is so committed to their side because of some great feeling of the better good.  Let's be real about this...this is nothing but politics as usual.

Dems Don't Show, GOP Cries Foul; I Make Predictions...



Surprise! Okay, not really.

For the second day in a row, the Indiana House Democrats have stayed "in caucus" on what was supposed to be the second day of the legislative session.  Really, it's just a fancy term to say they didn't show up to do business.  They didn't head out of state and stay in a motel (yet), but they decided to not show up for work all the same.

 

And the issue?  Yep.  Right to work legislation being proposed by the Republicans.  It's deja vu all over again.

 

The Dems say they are only filibustering, and are arguing this year that the Republicans are trying to "cram through" the legislation.  An interesting point of view on a topic that's been on the agenda for two sessions now. Nonetheless, the Dems are demanding that the Republicans allow public hearings around the State on the issue before heading into the House chambers for a vote.

 

The Republicans are crying foul.  They say the Democrats are failing to show up for the work they were elected to do, and are stalling the completion of other important pieces of legislation as well.

Minority Leader Bauer

House Speaker Brian Bosma and Minority Leader Pat Bauer have been, as you might expect, the faces of the two sides of the argument.  Bauer, as part of his statement that these actions represent a filibuster, also stated that the Democrats do not intend to leave the state.

The statement seems to indicate that the Democrats are, at least currently, considering returning to the Chamber soon.  Failure to do so could not only begin building a $1,000 per day fine (something the Dems are not scared of, since the tab would likely be picked up by unions, like last years for the most part was,) but also potentially lead to the legislators arrest.  Fear of arrest is exactly why they left the state last year, and why they may again in 2012.

Speaker Bosma

I have my thoughts on right to work, and they lie somewhere in between the Democratic and Republican sides of the issue.  In lieu of an argument here, I'll lay out my predictions for the future.





1. The Democrats, as they have announced, will continue to deny a quorum in the House. 
2. Sometime between a week and two weeks into this, Bosma and Bauer will reach an agreement "in the interest of getting business done" that will allow for some of the public hearings on the matter. 
3. Bauer and the Democrats will call for a large number of these to take place in heavily unionized towns like Kokomo.  Bosma and the GOP will call for a small number in towns that are hardly unionized at all.  There will end up being about 10 of these forums and they will be in a mix of union and non-union towns.
4.  The turnout at these hearings is going to be 90%+ against right to work in the union towns, and 75%+ against right to work in the non-union towns. 
5. The Democrats are going to shout from the rooftops that this is a clear indication that public sentiment is strongly against passing right to work. The Republicans are going to point out the fact that the reason the anti right to work turnout was so strong was because unions, both from Indiana and other states, flooded the cities where the forums were taking place and skewed the numbers.  They're going to make a note of the fact that many of the participants were paid by the unions to make the trip and be there.
6. The GOP will point to a handful of public polls that will have been done that show the public as a whole supports right to work. 
7. They will return to the Statehouse and vote the right to work legislation into law.
8. (unless the Dems walk out again realizing that the legislation is still going to pass...a definite possibility.)

I'm interested in how you think this will play out.  Please leave your thoughts on how this will in the comments section below.