Russia is too weak militarily to invade any Nato country. It is building some military infrastructure, notably on the border with Finland, but it has no soldiers to put there. Whatever Russia is planning is in a different domain, a war of nerves, aimed at our brains, not our territory.
An attack on Poland would be Putin’s last failThe US has warned Poland that Russia was plotting to attack it in a “few months” time, which would be the fastest way to end the Ukraine war, in president Vladimir Putin’s ultimate fail. The Russian emperor would go home from Poland not just naked, but also with a broken nose.
Officials say that, to appease the US, ‘burden-shifting’ rather than simply ‘burden-sharing’ will be one of the main themes in Ankara as the EU and others face pressure to ramp up their own production of defence and security equipment.
Data centres are mostly not built to withstand hostile attack, and the Iranian drones that struck Amazon’s sites in the Gulf showed that threat is no longer hypothetical. Cybersecurity incidents are also rising, and they tend to target data centres’ power and cooling systems and their interface with the grid.
The best way forward for Belarus is an often misunderstood but ultimately promising strategy known as “Finlandization” – a policy of strict neutrality.
The casual cancellation last week of the long-planned nine-month rotation of a brigade combat team to Poland exemplified everything that European allies find baffling and repellent about the Trump administration. ‘Irrational incompetence’ seems best to sum up Trump’s Europe policy, writes Edward Lucas.
Slovak defence minister Robert Kaliňák announced Bratislava wants to join the Baltic Air Policing mission with its new F-16 fighter jets — mixing up the confusing cocktail of Robert Fico’s government foreign-policy messaging.
Nato remains strong despite current tensions, says Stubb as he calls Europe to take on more responsibility for its own defence.
Estonia is one of Nato’s smallest members, but its experience of Russian occupation has contributed to high spending on defence and preparedness for attack.
A Post-Nato Manifesto: Given that no country can defend itself alone, the priority is to make new alliances — flexible, capable frameworks of threat-aware allies that are willing to take risks and make sacrifices for themselves and for others. The most promising group of like-minded states includes the Nordic five (Denmark, Iceland, Finland, Norway and Sweden) and the Baltic three (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania). Together with Britain and the Netherlands they are part of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF).
![Kaupo Rosin, director general of the Estonian foreign intelligence service: 'Most [Russian] soldiers have a low IQ level; they are convicts from the lowest strata of society. This is not an army you could use for sophisticated operations. Instead, they keep sending in troops blindly, sending them to their deaths'](https://static.euobserver.com/2026/04/1.webp)
Estonia’s foreign intelligence service chief Kaupo Rosin reflects on a whole-of-society approach to defence, one unexpected threat to Europe, and what he realised at 16.
“We don’t discuss internal issues of Nato”, said the EU’s Costa in Cyprus on US threat to Spain, as most EU leaders also ignored Trump ‘squeaky toy’ Pentagon memo.
In a strategic about-face, the Czech Republic is looking to join French President Emmanuel Macron’s initiative to build a pan-European nuclear deterrent.
Responsibility for Europe reads differently from Bratislava than from Brussels. The new German defence strategy is worth reading carefully, particularly from the capitals whose security still depends on German territory. Responsibility for Europe will be defined in the next decade by what Berlin does if Washington no longer underwrites European defence at previous levels. Germany has now stated, in writing, that this is the planning horizon.
Nato chief Mark Rutte spent two hours in the White House and left without the usual press conference or photo opportunities, calling the talks with US president Donald Trump “very frank”.
In less than three months’ time, Nato delegations will be packing for the alliance’s summit in Ankara. The agenda is empty, and the attendance of the most important guest, US president Donald Trump, is unclear. European allies will have time aplenty to ponder their alarmingly short list of security options, writes Edward Lucas.
THIS WEEK: Hungarians go to the polls, while Middle East keeps Nato on the brinkThis week, Hungarians vote in an era-defining election as Viktor Orbán faces his biggest challenge in 16 years. Meanwhile, Nato chief Mark Rutte visits Washington to ease the rift with Donald Trump over the high-stakes blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
“They [US forces] would obey if an order came to pull back [from Europe], but it’s not something they would concur with,” said retired Italian admiral Gianpaolo di Paola in an interview with EUobserver.
Appeasement has not prevented Donald Trump from temporarily suspending military aid to Ukraine, repeatedly threatening sweeping tariffs on European exports, or even suggesting the use of force to annex the sovereign territory of a Nato ally – Greenland. It has not prevented the US from launching a military operation against Iran that risks undermining European security, empowering the Kremlin, and potentially triggering a global economic downturn.
“Will there be panic in Europe? Depends when Moscow attacks. I personally think it will be this year, in which case we’re not ready,” said an EU diplomat.
