Data & Methodology

Where the numbers come from and how we process them

Primary Data Source

All investment return data on AssetVS comes from the Jordà-Schularick-Taylor (JST) Macrohistory Database (Release 6, 2022) — a peer-reviewed academic dataset maintained by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, University of Bonn, and UC Davis.

The JST database is one of the most comprehensive sources of long-run asset return data available, covering 18 advanced economies from 1870 to 2020. AssetVS uses data from 1961 onward across 16 countries where consistent coverage exists for all five asset classes.

Citation: Jordà, Òscar, Katharina Knoll, Dmitry Kuvshinov, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor. 2019. "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(3), 1225–1298.

Asset Classes

Asset JST Variable Description
📈 Stocks (Equities) eq_tr Total return on the domestic equity market, including dividends and capital gains.
📊 Government Bonds bond_tr Total return on long-term (typically 10-year) government bonds, including coupon payments.
🏠 Real Estate (Housing) housing_tr Total return on residential real estate, including rental income and price appreciation.
🥇 Gold gold_tr Nominal return on gold, measured in local currency terms.
💵 Treasury Bills bill_rate Short-term government bill rate, the closest proxy for "risk-free" returns.

Exchange Rate Data

Currency exchange rates come from the JST database (xrusd — units of local currency per 1 USD). For live exchange rates displayed on currency pages, we use market data from Yahoo Finance with a 1-hour cache refresh.

Cross-currency conversions use a USD bridge: local currency → USD → target currency. This is standard practice and matches how interbank FX markets operate.

Methodology

Growth of $100

All "Growth of $100" charts show the compounded growth of a $100 investment at the start of the selected period. Each year's return is applied sequentially:

Valuet = Valuet-1 × (1 + Returnt)

CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate)

CAGR represents the smoothed annual return needed to grow the investment from start to end:

CAGR = (End Value / Start Value)1/n − 1

Nominal vs Real

All returns shown on AssetVS are nominal total returns (not adjusted for inflation). This means they include price changes plus income (dividends, rent, coupons) but do not subtract inflation. We chose nominal returns for clarity and to avoid compounding assumptions about inflation measurement.

Currency Conversion

When viewing returns in a foreign currency, we convert using end-of-year exchange rates. A strong local currency will boost returns when viewed from abroad, while a weakening currency will reduce them. The calculator allows you to see returns in any of 15 currencies.

Country Coverage

We include 16 countries where the JST database provides consistent data for all five asset classes from 1961 to 2020:

🇺🇸 United States
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
🇩🇪 Germany
🇯🇵 Japan
🇫🇷 France
🇦🇺 Australia
🇸🇪 Sweden
🇫🇮 Finland
🇳🇴 Norway
🇮🇹 Italy
🇪🇸 Spain
🇳🇱 Netherlands
🇵🇹 Portugal
🇩🇰 Denmark
🇨🇭 Switzerland
🇧🇪 Belgium

Limitations

  • Returns are nominal — they do not account for inflation, taxes, or transaction costs.
  • Real estate returns represent residential housing indices, not individual property performance.
  • Gold returns pre-1971 reflect fixed-price regimes (Bretton Woods) and are not directly comparable to free-market gold.
  • Past performance does not predict future results.
  • Data ends in 2020 — the most recent years are not yet included in the JST database.

Additional References

  • Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern — Historical returns on stocks, bonds, and bills (US supplementary data).
  • World Bank, IMF — Exchange rate and inflation cross-reference.
  • Yahoo Finance — Live exchange rate data for currency pages.

Contact

Found an error in the data? Have a suggestion? Reach us at [email protected].

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