Well, the Navy’s over the
horizon (OTH) anti-ship missile (ASM) selection process just gets more baffling
by the day! As you recall, the Navy is
looking for an OTH ASM to arm its LCS ships and, possibly, Burkes and other
ships. The OTH ASM is intended both to
give the toothless LCS a bit of bite and to make the LCS and every other ship
in the Navy components in the much-hyped distributed lethality concept that the
Navy seems committed to. You’ll further
recall that distributed lethality is one of the outgrowths of the Third Offset
Strategy which is predicated on networks and UAVs. The Third Offset and Distributed Lethality
envision a vast regional (world wide?!) network of all-seeing sensors
completely interconnected with every platform and weapon. Every ship in the Navy thus becomes an
offensive threat – or so the fairy tale goes.
The key to all of this is, of course, networking. Remember that - we’ll come back to it in a
moment.
Now, in a fairly surprising
bit of news, Lockheed has announced that it, too, is dropping the Long Range
Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) out of the competition.
“After long and careful consideration, Lockheed
Martin has decided to withdraw from the U.S. Navy
Over-the-Horizon Weapon System (OTH-WS) competition. As the current OTH-WS
request for proposal process refined over time, it became clear that our
offering would not be fully valued,” read a statement from the company provided
to USNI News.” (1)
“Lockheed Martin, frustrated by changing requirements
the company feels are skewed to a particular competitor [Kongsberg’s NSM], is
dropping out of the U.S. Navy’s over-the-horizon missile program … “ (2)
Their offering would not be
fully valued???? What does that
mean? Apparently, it means that certain
features of the missile would not be considered as benefits in the eyes of the
Navy selectors.
“Both companies expressed concern that the Navy was
giving little consideration to the networked capability of the weapons, USNI
News understands.” (1)
“…Boeing and Lockheed felt that key attributes of
their systems, particularly networking capabilities and in-flight targeting
updates, were being discounted, robbing Lockheed’s Long Range Anti-Ship
Missile, or LRASM, and Boeing’s extended-range Harpoon Block II
Plus of key competitive advantages.
“There was no value for being able to go after radiating or emitting targets,”
an industry source said, discounting an LRASM capability that can detect
emitting and moving targets. “Through responses it became clear there
would be no credit for attacking emitting targets, and no requirement to be on
a network.”
The absence of a networking requirement was “surprising,” the industry source
said, “given the needs of the distributed lethality concept,” which envisions
netting together weapons, sensors and command facilities on a variety of
platforms.
Additionally, the industry source said, there was “no plan to do a
cost-per-kill analysis. They made that clear. So no extra credit for improved
survivability.” (2)
So, if you believe Lockheed
and Boeing, the OTH ASM selection competition is a sham and the Navy has a
pre-determined winner, the Kongsberg Naval Strike Missile (NSM) already
selected. Now, do I believe Lockheed and
Boeing? Do they have any
credibility? Emphatically, no! However, they have both dropped out of a
potentially lucrative competition so that means that there is something
seriously wrong. With that in mind, yes,
I am inclined to believe that the Navy has already, unofficially selected the
NSM for the OTH ASM.
The only alternative
explanation is that the Navy is conducting a fair and open competition but that
the real requirements are for a vastly dumbed down missile with no networking
capability and that just doesn’t seem believable. The entire foundation of the Third Offset
Strategy and the Navy’s distributed lethality concept is networking – the very
feature that they don’t want in the OTH ASM?
Does that seem believable?
The Navy, and the military
in general, loves to trumpet tests wherein a Boy Scout in Montana controls a
Standard missile fired by a cruiser in the Pacific until the missile is
re-targeted, mid flight, by a Marine private marching out of his boot camp
graduation ceremony while he relays the new targeting data via a handheld
quadcopter. Given the Navy’s love of
this kind of nonsensical networking capability, the dependence of distributed
lethality on networking, the Navy’s pursuit of NIFC-CA (Naval Integrated Fire
Control – Counter Air) and CEC (Cooperative Engagement Capability), again I
ask, does not requiring networking in the OTH ASM sound believable?
Now, understand, I have no
sympathy for Lockheed or Boeing and I have no problem with the Navy tailoring
their industry requests (RFP) to give them exactly the product they want. Their requests should be specific and
tailored. Why pay for capabilities you
don’t want or need?
However, if the stories and
claims are to be believed, what the Navy appears to want doesn’t match their
desired warfighting concepts, as questionable as those may be in my mind. This is inconsistent. I’m missing something here.
What is it about the NSM
that makes the Navy want it so bad? You’ll
recall that we recently looked at the NSM (see, "Kongsberg Naval Strike Missile") and concluded that it was a nice
weapon with some advantages and disadvantages.
Curiously, we also noted that it was claimed to be capable of in-flight
re-targeting which suggests at least a degree of networking which is at odds
with Lockheed and Boeing’s claims. Be
that as it may, nothing about the NSM jumped out as a world-beater capability
that would make it the automatic choice of the Navy for an OTH ASM. The NSM’s completely passive nature was an
unusual feature but that did not strike me as an overwhelming advantage.
 |
| Kongsberg NSM - Where's the Magic? |
I can’t answer my own
question. I don’t know what makes the
NSM so desirable to the Navy that they would write RFPs that “force” the
Harpoon and LRASM out of the competition.
Further, forcing the LRASM
out is doubly puzzling because the LRASM is being developed as the air-launched
ASM of the Navy and most observers, myself included, assumed the ship-launched
version would quickly follow and that the LRASM would become the standard Navy
OTH ASM. Now, it’s possible that the NSM
could become the LCS OTH missile and the LRASM could be selected, separately,
for Burkes but I would have thought the Navy would have been driven to
standardize on a single OTH ASM.
Finally, forcing Lockheed and Boeing out leaves only a single competitor. Is that single competitor, knowing that the Navy has no other option, likely to offer their cheapest bid? Of course not! The single source competitor is going to greatly increase their bid to the highest point that they think they can get without triggering a reopening of the competition. Instead of getting everyone's cheapest bids the Navy will get a single source's highest bid! That's one of the reasons why monopolies are bad. I would have thought the Navy would leave the requirements loose enough to at least have a few companies offer a bid so that all the bids are cheaper. In the end, the Navy can always select the one they want, anyway, so there's no harm in having multiple bidders even if the Navy already knows which one they want. There's no harm, and a lot of good, in having multiple bidders. The Navy seems to have no business sense about how to play competitors against each other.
In summary, I have no idea
what’s going on here.
_______________________________
(1)USNI News website,
“Lockheed Martin Drops LRASM Out of Littoral Combat Ship/Frigate Missile
Competition”, Sam LaGrone, 24-May-2017,
(2)Defense News website, “Lockheed
Martin Drops Out of US Navy Missile Competition”, Christopher Cavas, 24-May-2017,