News has just come out that Trump has reached a trade deal
with China and, at first glance, it appears to be a strategic defeat for the
US.
Note: We’re not going to discuss the political or
financial aspects of the deal, only the military implications.
With regard to the military, the two key elements of the
deal are:
1. US will continue to receive magnets and rare earths
2. US will continue to accept Chinese students
The magnets and rare earths aspect only furthers our
vulnerability to this strategically vital resource. China has never met a treaty or deal that it
wasn’t willing to break (UNCLOS tribunal, for example) when it suited them so
why would we think that China won’t threaten to cut off our supply the next time
some disagreement or crisis arises? We
are continuing our dependency on our enemy.
That’s insane. It would be far
better to quit, cold turkey, and initiate a crash program to produce our own
materials.
If this deal were just a stopgap while we frantically
established our own strategic materials supply, I might be able to accept it
but I see no evidence that we’re engaged in any massively accelerated program
to do so. Human nature, being what it
is, we’ll just continue to depend on China without really addressing our
vulnerability in any useful time frame.
We should be waiving every permit and review requirement in
order to establish our supply as quickly as possible. If necessary, we should be subsidizing
construction and production; after all,
it’s a strategic necessity!
Every Chinese student we educate is both a technological spy
and a future scientific asset to be used against us. We are educating our enemy and giving them a
look at cutting edge university research.
That’s insane.
From a military perspective, I can’t understand what Trump
was thinking. If I’m China, I’m
extremely happy with the deal.
2. US will continue to accept Chinese students
