Showing posts with label Turkey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Turkey. Show all posts

Monday, January 8, 2024

Unmanned and Analytical Rigor

The degree of intellectual rigor being applied to unmanned systems is nearly non-existent.
 
For example, here’s an article about the first exercise involving a Turkish ULAQ 11 m unmanned surface craft.   The article lists claimed benefits of unmanned and joint manned-unmanned assets (they refer to the combined manned-unmanned operations as MUM-T, for some unfathomable reason).  Along with the claims, I’ve added the most cursory of intellectual and analytical rigor, in red, to examine the claim. 
 
Here’s the exact quotes and claims
 
Increased Operational Efficiency: MUM-T allows for the simultaneous operation of manned and unmanned vessels, enabling a more comprehensive and efficient coverage of a given area. Autonomous or remotely operated USVs can handle routine or monotonous tasks, freeing up human operators to focus on more complex decision-making.
 
There is no evidence that teaming an unmanned boat and a manned asset allows for more comprehensive and efficient coverage of a given area.  In fact, most unmanned assets are small and decidedly underpowered compared to equivalent manned assets and, therefore, have reduced sensor coverage compared to purely manned assets.  Further, human operators are not freed up for more complex decision making;  they’re merely transferred from one tedious job to another: in this case, from direct sensor observations and interpretation to indirect sensor observations and interpretation    same exact job, just using second hand data instead of direct observations.
 
Further, most unmanned sensors, being mounted on smaller unmanned platforms, have a significantly smaller field of view compared to a similar manned platform and are, therefore, less efficient in their coverage than purely manned platforms.
 
Risk Reduction: MUM-T can be used to mitigate risks associated with certain tasks. Unmanned vessels can be deployed for missions in hazardous or high-threat environments, minimizing the exposure of human operators to potential dangers.
 
This is partially true on a limited basis, depending on what capabilities the unmanned asset has.  Typically, the unmanned asset is far less capable than the equivalent manned asset and the manned asset must still be put at risk.
 
A closely related consideration is that if the risky task requires any degree of sophisticated capability, the unmanned platform will be correspondingly expensive and while the unmanned asset reduces (note:  does not eliminate) the human risk, the monetary risk is equal to, or greater than, the manned asset.
 
Extended Endurance and Range: Unmanned surface vessels can be designed for longer endurance and extended range. This is particularly beneficial for tasks such as persistent surveillance, reconnaissance, or data collection in remote or challenging environments.
 
Manned assets can equally be designed for longer endurance and extended range.  There is nothing inherently superior about unmanned asset range and endurance.  Further, longer endurance and extended range comes with a concomitant decrease in capabilities.  For example, an aircraft, manned or unmanned, can achieve longer range/endurance by reducing the weight of the payload.  Of course, reduced payload equates to reduced capabilities.
 
Flexibility and Scalability: MUM-T provides a flexible and scalable approach to maritime operations. Depending on the mission requirements, the combination of manned and unmanned assets can be adjusted to achieve optimal results.
 
This is ridiculous buzzword bingo.  Manned systems are equally flexible and scalable and can be adjusted to achieve optimal results.  Unmanned assets have absolutely no inherent benefits in this regard.
 
Sensor Fusion and Information Sharing: MUM-T facilitates the integration of various sensors and data sources from both manned and unmanned platforms. This enables enhanced situational awareness and information sharing, leading to better-informed decision-making.
 
As the quote correctly notes, ‘integration’ of sensors and data is not an inherent characteristic of unmanned assets and applies equally to manned assets.  Unmanned assets offer no ‘enhanced situational awareness’.
 
Coordinated Missions: Manned and unmanned vessels can operate in a coordinated manner to execute complex missions. This collaboration allows for a synergistic approach, combining the strengths of human intuition and adaptability with the precision and endurance of unmanned systems.
 
More marketing bilgewater.  Manned assets can, and do, ‘operate in a coordinated manner to execute complex missions’.  Again, there is zero inherent superiority in coordinating unmanned assets and, indeed, some significant drawbacks in that manned assets can act independently and with intelligence as situations change whereas unmanned assets cannot.
 
Training and Skill Development: MUM-T scenarios provide opportunities for training human operators in controlling and interacting with unmanned systems. This helps in developing the necessary skills for seamless collaboration between manned and unmanned assets.
 
This is the ultimate in self-licking ice cream cone logic.  Of course operating unmanned assets develops skill in operating unmanned assets.  So what?  Operating elephants develops skill in operating elephants but that doesn’t help warfighting and neither do unmanned assets.
 
 
Conclusion
 
This article was a marketing blurb, pure and simple.  Its only value was in clearly illustrating the lack of analytical rigor being applied to unmanned systems.  The West has made the leap directly from concept to implementation of unmanned systems without bothering to stop at the analysis step. 

The article reads like a Turkish arm sales marketing brochure and should be an embarrassment to the Naval News website.
 
 
 
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[1]Naval News website, “ULAQ Combat USV Proves Efficiency On The Field”, staff, 29-Dec-2023,
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/12/ulaq-combat-usv-proves-efficiency-on-the-field/

Monday, March 14, 2022

Turkish UAV Carrier

Although it is not yet 100% certain, it appears that Turkey is following through on plans to modify a LHD amphibious ship (the Anadolu, L400) to act as a drone carrier after having the option of operating F-35Bs terminated due to political issues and removal from the F-35 program. 

 

As previously reported by Defense News, the Turkish government hopes to convert its landing helicopter dock Anadolu into a carrier ship for attack drones because the Turkish navy lost the ability to launch a fixed-wing aircraft from Anadolu after the United States removed Turkey from the F-35 project.[1]

 

Anadolu will be capable to deploy between 30 and 50 Bayraktar TB3 folding-wing drones.[1]

 

Let’s take a closer look at Turkey’s UAV carrier.

 

 

Air Wing

 

As with any carrier, the carrier’s value lies entirely in its air wing.  In this case the air wing consists entirely of unmanned UAV drones.


 

Image
Turkish UAV Carrier Anadolu

 

The Turkish UAV carrier will use an indigenously designed and built drone, the TB3, based on the Baykar TB2 family.

 

The new armed drone will have a takeoff weight of 1450 kilograms [ed. 3190 lbs] and will be able to fly 24 hours a day, according to an infographic in the presentation. In addition, the TB-3 will be able to fly at high altitudes, and its wings will fold when on the ship.[1]

 

Turkey’s Defence Industry Chief Ismail Demir stated that Anadolu will be capable to deploy between 30 or 50 Bayraktar TB-3 drones.[5]



Image
Turkish UAV Carrier Concept Illustration - Note 
Size of Aircraft and Folding Wings


 The TB3 is a modification of the TB2, already in operation.  The TB3 will launch using a ‘roller’ and pulley/cable mechanism powered by an electric motor [4] and recover by flying into a net, the belief being that having the propellers mounted to the rear will allow the net recovery with no damage.  Other reports have suggested that aircraft recovery will be via a ‘hook’ of some sort.[5]

 

Image
TB3 Drone



Image
Roller Style Launch System


 


Here’s some basic specs and features of the TB3 [2]:

 

 

TB3 Drone Specs and Features

Wingspan

14 m (45.9 ft)

Length

8.35 m (27.4 ft)

Height

2.6 m (8.5 ft)

Max Take Off Weight

1450 kg (3190 lb)

Cruise Speed

125 knots

Max Speed

160 knots

Max Payload

280 Kilograms (616 lb)

Endurance

24+ hrs (one report claims 50 hrs[8])

Communications

Line Of Sight and Beyond Line Of Sight

Take Off and Landing

Fully Autonomous

 

 

 

As shown in the specs, this is a big drone.  It’s about the same size as the well known MQ-1 Predator.

 

Turkey is also developing an unmanned air-to-air combat UAV.

 

Selcuk Bayraktar [Chief Technology Officer of Baykar Co.] also stated that MIUS, an unmanned combat aircraft currently in concept design, would operate alongside the TB-3 on the LHD Anadolu. A MIUS prototype is planned to fly in 2023. LHD Anadolu would deploy two types of fixed-wing unmanned air assets once trials were completed.[1]

 

The first flight of prototype MIUS is expected in 2023. Currently in design phase, MUIS will be jet-powered, with a payload of up to 1.5 tons, Baykar top boss added. The autonomously maneuvering craft will be capable of operating in tandem with piloted aircraft, and may carry air-to-air missiles.[3]

 

“MIUS will operate at a cruising speed close to the speed of sound; the further prototypes will fly at the supersonic speed. It will have a payload of around 1500 kilograms. It will be able to deploy air-to-air, air-to-ground missiles and cruise missiles.”[5]

 


Image
Turkish MIUS Combat Drone Illustration

 

It appears that Turkey is attempting to develop both a strike/ISR and an air combat drone and their schedule is extremely aggressive.

 

On a related note, Turkey has developed a UAV air-to-surface weapon, the MAM-L smart micro munition.  It is 1m long, weighs 22 kg, and has a range of 8-15 km, depending on options.[6]

 

 

CONOPS

 

We have no formal information about the Turkish UAV Carrier Concept of Operations (CONOPS), however, we can reason out a general concept.

 

Turkey is clearly aiming to develop combat drones as opposed to surveillance drones although I’m sure they’ll use the drones for surveillance, as needed.  This would provide them with a carrier-mobile strike/combat aviation capability to replace the lost F-35B capability, to a degree.  The TB3, in particular, seems to be a surveillance drone with a surface-to-ground missile capability, likely akin to the US Hellfire equipped drones.  The MIUS drone, on the other hand, appears to be a pure combat UAV.

 

Of note is the fairly large number of embarked drones.  Numbers in the 30-50 range have been reported.[7]  This is significant in that it allows for massing of firepower effects to produce a militarily significant impact and allows for inevitable attrition. 

 

Note: some reports have suggested that simultaneous control is limited to around 10 UAVs.[8]  If true, this would limit the massing benefit.

 

On the negative side, the Turkish TB3 drones are large and slow and, as has been demonstrated in the real world, large, slow drones will have a very short life over a high end battlefield.  The MIUS, as described, would be quite fast and maneuverable, making it potentially quite suitable for high end combat.

 

All of this suggests that the carrier is intended to operate in lower threat scenarios (as opposed to a China/US type high end combat setting) where the larger, slower TB3 can still be effective.  The apparent control limit of ten or so UAVs also suggests lower threat scenarios where the UAV can provide situational awareness and an ‘aerial sniper’ type of ground support/attack as opposed to mass attacks.

 

If successfully developed (an ambitious undertaking by any standard!), the MIUS will be fully capable of high end combat and would, presumably, come to eventually comprise the majority of the air wing.

 

All of this strongly suggests that the UAV carrier will be used as a ground support platform rather than a stand alone strike asset.  The MIUS would be used to establish local air superiority thereby allowing the TB3 drones to conduct sniper attacks on ground targets.  An ambitious concept, if correct!

 

 

Summary

 

As stated, the value of any carrier is its air wing.  Turkey’s UAV carrier air wing is, currently, mostly conceptual although the scope of that concept is impressive, to say the least.  Of course, as the US has seen, repeatedly, the road from concept to working asset is difficult and, more often than not, results in failure.  The more ambitious the concept, the greater the chance of failure and Turkey’s concept is ambitious in the extreme with the envisioned MIUS supersonic air combat vehicle as the cornerstone of the concept.  It will be fascinating to see whether they can make it work.

 

ComNavOps has long advocated a UAV carrier although with a different intended mission from Turkey’s LHD.  The Turkish CONOPS may work for whatever uses Turkey has in mind but they would not work for the US.  The US has many different forms of strike and air-to-air capability, all far more efficient and effective than a large, slow drone or even an air-to-air combat UAV.  What the US needs is a large amount of small, cheap, expendable surveillance drones for which a UAV carrier would be ideal.  Similar ships, different CONOPS.

 

One cannot help but admire the vision and ambition of the Turkish arms development industry.  If they can transform their visions into successful, working assets they will, if not revolutionize, certainly significantly impact the future conduct of war.  The US Navy considered a combat UAV but ultimately settled on an unmanned tanker, instead.  Our vision was more restrained, opting to take the safer route and develop unmanned carrier operating experience before revisiting the combat UAV.  Which country’s approach will prove more successful (or both, or neither) remains to be seen.

 

I find it embarrassing that Turkey is exploring a UAV carrier when the US Navy will not.  We have amphibious ships to, literally, throw away and it is nothing short of criminal to not use one as a prototype for a UAV carrier.  The USS Whidbey Island (LSD-41), for example, is being retired this year and could easily serve as a prototype for a year or two.

 

We’re enamored with unmanned aircraft and yet, inexplicably, we seem to have no interest in figuring out how to integrate them into the fleet.


 

 

 

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[1]Defense News, “Turkey’s Baykar preparing shipborne fleet of combat drones”, Tayfun Ozberk, 6-Aug-2021,

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/08/06/turkeys-baykar-preparing-shipborne-fleet-of-combat-drones/

 

[2]https://baykartech.com/en/bayraktar-tb3/

 

[3]https://www.defenseworld.net/news/30761/Baykar_to_Test_Bayraktar_TB3_Sea_Based_UAV#.YiFGcfZFyM8

 

[4]https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/05/10/behold-the-turkish-navys-drone-aircraft-carrier/?sh=dcfa87839daa

 

[5]Naval News website, “Turkey to deploy MIUS unmanned combat aircraft from LHD Anadolu”,Tayfun Ozberk, 22-Jul-2021,

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/07/turkey-to-deploy-mius-unmanned-combat-aircraft-from-lhd-anadolu/

 

[6]https://navyclippings.nl/index.php/2021/03/18/turkish-navys-ucav-engages-sea-target-for-the-first-time/

 

[7]Defense News, “Turkey plans to deploy attack drones from its amphibious assault ship”, Tayfun Ozberk, 11-Mar-2021,

https://www.defensenews.com/global/2021/03/11/turkey-plans-to-deploy-attack-drones-from-its-amphibious-assault-ship/

 

[8]https://vpk.name/en/579043_in-turkey-the-flight-of-the-deck-bayraktar-was-announced.html